West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices surged 7.3% to $72.98 per barrel on Friday, June 13, a five-month high, as Israel’s airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and military targets raised fears of Middle East oil supply disruptions. Iran’s retaliatory missile strikes on Tel Aviv, part of Operation True Promise 3, escalated the conflict, pushing WTI up 13.3% over the past month.
Israel’s Operation Rising Lion, launched June 12, targeted Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility and military sites, while Iran struck Israeli bases. Strikes on Iran’s South Pars gas field and Asalouyeh refinery, though sparing the Kharg Island export terminal, heightened concerns about the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil flows. “If Iran blocks this chokepoint, it could affect up to 20% of global oil flows,” said Arne Rasmussen of Global Risk Management.
Investors turned to safe-haven assets, with gold rising 1.35% to $3,448.40 per ounce. The S&P 500 fell 0.53% to 6,013.12, while energy stocks like Chevron gained 2.3%. U.S. crude inventories were roughly in line with seasonal averages, per the Energy Information Administration, supporting price gains amid geopolitical tensions.
Analysts see a geopolitical risk premium driving prices. Goldman Sachs projects WTI at $55-$65 by 2026, assuming OPEC+ boosts output by 410,000 barrels per day from August. “OPEC+ could offset a supply hit of around 500,000 barrels a day,” said Priya Walia of Rystad Energy. Iran, producing 3.3 million barrels daily, exports 1.7 million barrels, mostly to China, which could source from Russia if disrupted.
A prolonged conflict could lift prices further. JPMorgan estimates WTI could hit $85 if Iran restricts Strait access. With Israel and Iran vowing more action, WTI faces heightened volatility.
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